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Faxon 1996 Price Projection (Ron Akie) ERCELAA@ctrvax.Vanderbilt.Edu 27 Jan 1995 02:31 UTC

Date: Thu, 26 Jan 1995 19:00:35 -0400
From: Ron Akie <AKIE@FAXON.COM>
Subject: Faxon 1996 Price Projection

Faxon 1996 Subscription Price Projections

Preliminary Projections - January 1995

Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, world economic
conditions, and current and projected values of the U.S. dollar, Faxon is
projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for 1996
subscriptions.  Please note that these are preliminary projections based on
current conditions and are subject to change as the year progresses.

                North American          European
                Titles                  Titles

Page Inflation     2.5%                  3.0%
Paper/Postage      3.0%                  3.0%
General Inflation  2.5%                  2.0%
Cancellations      2.5%                  3.0%
Currency Changes   N/A                   7.5%

Total Increase     10.5%                18.5%

Typical Overall Increase     13.1%
(based on 67% U.S., 33% European collection)

The increases detailed in each category above represent the net effect that
each component is expected to have on the final subscription price.  For
example, European title page increases in total are expected to be closer to
6%, but the net effect on the price will be 3%.

Key Assumptions

        *       Page Inflation:  Even with tighter editorial standards,
increased manuscript submissions will result in more published pages again next
year.

        *       Paper and Postage:  After several years of stability, paper
prices have sky-rocketed due to very limited inventories.  Postal costs have
also risen.

        *       General Inflation:  Inflation in both Europe and the U.S. has
been accelerating and is expected to continue to rise at moderate levels.

        *       Cancellations:  Publishers continue to see increased
subscription cancellations and must therefore allocate increasing fixed costs
over a shrinking unit base.

        *       Currency:  The U.S. dollar has fallen approximately 10% against
key European currencies since last year.  We have recently seen some
strengthening of the US dollar since the Federal Reserve Bank has raised
interest rates, and we expect this to continue.  At the time publishers set
their 1996 prices, we expect the U.S. dollar will be approximately 7% below
last year's level and will strengthen further into the Fall.

1995 actual subscription price increases.

For 1995 subscriptions, Faxon's May 1994 price projections proved to be within
1% of the actual increases:

                                Faxon Projection        Actual 1995
                                   May 1994               Increase

North American Titles                 9.9%                   9.8%

European Titles                      10.4%                   9.6%

Typical Overall Increase             10.5%                   9.7%

Calculating our projections.

In making our  projections, we look at many factors including consumer price
inflation by country for major publishers; paper costs and futures; and postal
rates.  In addition, we survey publishers on their expectations for page and
volume increases, and we consult economic and financial experts.

Over the course of the year, we update our projections based on the status of
the U.S. dollar, conversations with financial experts and communications with
publishers.  So, if you are using our projections, please be sure you have the
latest information available. These price projections were made in January
1995.