Agreed Kelly,
Assuming 0 ice processing in space capability at TL10 before the invention of Jump and in the immediate aftermach (for a couple of centuries?; couldn't find a source), we would progress to
TL11 poor capability with poor (10%) efficiency
TL12 improved capability with (25%) improved efficiency
TL13 acceptable operating capability with (51%) break-even efficiency
TL14 advanced capability with (66%) advanced efficiency
TL15 sustained capability with (75%) sustained efficiency
TL16 exceptional capability with (95%) near-perfect efficiency
Since discussion is largely around TL15, and I prefer a D6, exceptional capability would not be available unless the plant can be fitted with secondary re-processing systems that would still not achieve TL16, but may produce something like 85% efficiency.
I really think that at TL15 luck should be a very small componenet in what PCs can accomplish given a focus on achieving desired outcomes.
Cheers
Greg C