EBSCO Serial Price Projections Laura Ralstin 26 Feb 1996 18:10 UTC

FROM: Laura Ralstin
Corporate Communications
EBSCO Subscription Services
Birmingham, Alabama, U.S.A.
(205) 991-1492

Preliminary Price Projections for 1997 Subscriptions

Birmingham, Ala. U.S.A. -- Publishers have indicated to EBSCO that base
price* increases will be slightly lower for 1997 subscriptions than
they were for 1996 subscriptions. Based on information received from
publishers during the first quarter of this year and on historical
price increase data, EBSCO is now projecting a base increase of 9 to 11
percent for 1997 subscriptions.

Projecting increases is difficult at this time of year as many
yet-undetermined factors will affect journal prices, including: page
increases, volume expansion, subscription cancellations, basic
inflation, postal rates and currency exchange rates in effect at the
time prices are set or publishers are paid for 1997 subscriptions.
EBSCO continually communicates with major publishers regarding
projected price increases, and updated projections will be provided
later in the year.

Postal rate increases
One factor that will have a key effect on journal prices this year is
an increase in postal rates for most major countries throughout the
world. Rates for most countries are scheduled to increase in January
1997, due to a resolution passed in 1994 by the Universal Postal Union
(an agency of the United Nations that establishes practices for
transnational mailings and the rate at which countries are reimbursed
for handling these mailings). The amount of the increase has not yet
been set and will vary among countries. Therefore, it is difficult for
publishers to know how much of their costs will be attributable to
postage and difficult for vendors and publishers to project total
subscription price increases.

Projections by subscriber billing currency
Projected increases for libraries and organizations invoiced in various
currencies are listed in the box below. For U.S. journals, projections
are based on the estimated base price increase of 9 to 11 percent and
the current, relative value of the customer billing currency compared
to the U.S. dollar.

For European journals, projections are based on the estimated base
price increase of 9 to 11 percent and the current, relative value of
the customer billing currency compared to that of the local currencies
of major European publishing centers.** Ranges shown are for European
journals published outside the corresponding country for each billing
currency (e.g., the projected increase for customers invoiced in
British pounds does not apply to U.K. journals).

Conservative budgeting
As always, EBSCO recommends all customers add 2 to 5 percent to the
estimated price increases for non-domestic journals to protect their
budgets from a weakening of the currency in which they are invoiced
between now and when subscription rates are set or publishers are paid.


Customer                        Projected               Projected
Billing                         Increase for            Increase for
Currency                         U.S. Journals           European
Australian dollar               9.0 - 11.0%             7.0 - 9.0%
British pound                   9.0 - 11.0%             8.0 - 10.0%
Canadian dollar                 11.0 - 13.0%            9.5 - 11.5%
Dutch guilder                   11.0 - 13.0%            10.0 - 12.0%
French franc                    11.0 - 13.0%            10.0 - 12.0%
German mark                     11.0 - 13.0%            9.5 - 11.5%
Italian lira                    10.0 - 12.0%            10.0 - 12.0%
Japanese yen                    12.0 - 14.0%            10.0 - 12.0%
New Zealand dollar              7.0 - 9.0%              6.0 - 8.0%
South African rand              12.0 - 14.0%            10.5 - 12.5%
Spanish peseta                  10.0 - 12.0%            10.0 - 12.0%
U.S. dollar                     9.0 - 11.0%             9.0 - 11.0%

*The base price increase is the change in the cost of a journal
purchased within its country of origin with the official currency of
that country. When subscribers from other countries buy the journal,
the base price increase will either be offset or compounded by the
exchange rate between the subscriber's and the publisher's currencies.

**Mid-February exchange rates were used for these projections.

Released: Feb. 22, 1996